Abstract
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Social media has become an essential aspect of our life, and we are used to expressing our thoughts on these platforms. Using social media as an opinion finder has become a popular measure. For any topic that the public opinion matters, there is the potential of using social media to evaluate the problem. Presidential election definitely falls into this category. Previous researches have proven the effectiveness of using social media such as Twitter to predict the outcome of elections. Nevertheless, the composition of social media users can never be the same as the real demographic. What makes things worse is the existence of malicious users who intend to manipulate the public’s tendencies toward candidates or parties. In this paper, we aim to increase the predicting precision under the premise that the extracted tweets are noisy. By taking an individual’s trustworthiness, participation bias and the influence into account, we propose a novel method to forecast the U.S. presidential election.</p>
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